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some stats and predictions

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Message boards : Cafe CPDN : some stats and predictions
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Profile old_user1742

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Message 9138 - Posted: 11 Feb 2005, 18:27:29 UTC

With the recent burst of new users, cpdn has now overtaken seti@home in the BOINC recent credit stakes, but cpdn is still far behind in number of users, number of machines and number of team. cpdn now has 49.4% of the total recent credit.

My estimate for 70,000 runs completed is 1 March, and for 100,000 is late May. By end of February we should have just under 40,000 trickling computers. Hopefully publicity about THC experiment results, launch of sulphur cycle and experiment 2 will push the number of trickling machines above 50,000 by June.
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KeeperC

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Message 9285 - Posted: 14 Feb 2005, 9:03:05 UTC - in response to Message 9138.  

&gt; With the recent burst of new users, cpdn has now overtaken seti@home in the
&gt; BOINC recent credit stakes, but cpdn is still far behind in number of users,
&gt; number of machines and number of team. cpdn now has 49.4% of the total recent
&gt; credit.
&gt;
&gt; My estimate for 70,000 runs completed is 1 March, and for 100,000 is late May.
&gt; By end of February we should have just under 40,000 trickling computers.
&gt; Hopefully publicity about THC experiment results, launch of sulphur cycle and
&gt; experiment 2 will push the number of trickling machines above 50,000 by June.
&gt;

Is any of this recent credit the result of the so-called credit lottery?
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Profile Andrew Hingston
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Message 9289 - Posted: 14 Feb 2005, 11:11:34 UTC - in response to Message 9285.  
Last modified: 14 Feb 2005, 11:12:09 UTC

&gt; Is any of this recent credit the result of the so-called credit lottery?
&gt;

Yes, RAC will be artificially inflated in CPDN. On the other hand, it only affects those who have recently completed a run, and most of the recent joiners will not have had time do so.

I suppose it would be possible to measure actual credit over a period - CPDN will still be slightly inaccurate because there is a small time lag before the credit is corrected after a run, but it should not be far off.
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Profile Thyme Lawn
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Message 9290 - Posted: 14 Feb 2005, 11:23:05 UTC

The other thing to bear in mind is that S@H were migrating to a new server last week and had quite a few pending credits backlogged.
"The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world that it leaves to its children." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer
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