Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Unrealistic temperature prediction
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Send message Joined: 3 Sep 04 Posts: 126 Credit: 26,610,380 RAC: 3,377 |
In this graph the predicted global mean surface air temperature seems to be quite unrealistic. Is it useful to continue with this work unit? |
Send message Joined: 9 Jan 07 Posts: 467 Credit: 14,549,176 RAC: 317 |
That is unusual! The project is trying to see the effects of lots of parameter combinations. Not all of them will be realistic, but they all contribute to an understanding of the simulation\'s sensitivity to changes. The advice from the project is, I think, to continue with every model as long as possible. It will be interesting to see whether this particular model will be able to get all the way to 2080. |
Send message Joined: 5 Sep 04 Posts: 7629 Credit: 24,240,330 RAC: 0 |
Yes, please continue. Models like yours are the ones that the researchers find the most interesting, because it tells them a lot about the combination of values being used for that model. Backups: Here |
Send message Joined: 3 Sep 04 Posts: 126 Credit: 26,610,380 RAC: 3,377 |
Ok, I\'ll keep it running. We\'ll see what happens. Thanks. |
Send message Joined: 5 Aug 04 Posts: 1496 Credit: 95,522,203 RAC: 0 |
It\'s \"only\" 5C degrees above its start point, within the range of possibility, and the curve is flattening. It will be interesting to see the finished curve. "We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest. |
Send message Joined: 3 Sep 04 Posts: 126 Credit: 26,610,380 RAC: 3,377 |
It has about the same temperature graph as this one: http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?resultid=6450435. Both crashed when the temperature reached 21 degrees, with the same error message: \"Model crashed: umshell1.f: ATM_DYN : NEGATIVE THETA DETECTED.\" |
Send message Joined: 13 Jan 06 Posts: 1498 Credit: 15,613,038 RAC: 0 |
Good work, thanks. These extreme models are useful to find the boundaries of viable models vs. nonviable models. I'm a volunteer and my views are my own. News and Announcements and FAQ |
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