Hi

If geophi is monitoring these BOINC CPDN boards, it would be interesting to know how his AMD64 comparison of the 'unofficial' offline experiment on WU248363 (2whn_000156785_1) with specific ref to Phase 2 has gone compared to the Amy/Stacey result discussed in the "same parameter different result" thread.

For what it's worth, at present both Amy and Stacey in Phase 3 are calculating a very rapid warming trend (already above 16C global mean) after 4 years for this particular model. Appears to be the fastest rate of Phase 3 temperature rise I have yet observed in 10 CPDN runs.

Pete

> Hi
>
> If geophi is monitoring these BOINC CPDN boards, it would be interesting to
> know how his AMD64 comparison of the 'unofficial' offline experiment on
> WU248363 (2whn_000156785_1) with specific ref to Phase 2 has gone compared to
> the Amy/Stacey result discussed in the "same parameter different result"
> thread.
>
> For what it's worth, at present both Amy and Stacey in Phase 3 are calculating
> a very rapid warming trend (already above 16C global mean) after 4 years for
> this particular model. Appears to be the fastest rate of Phase 3 temperature
> rise I have yet observed in 10 CPDN runs.
>
> Pete
>
Hi Pete,

Yes, I've been monitoring. My run is at 94% of completion. At year 4 of phase 3, it was about 16.3 mean annual temperature. At year 12, it was about 18.5C. It's still rising quite nicely (or badly if you will). Graphic below just times series of phase 3 through 2062...

Edit...to embed images, and other html stuff...see this <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/forum_thread.php?id=140">thread</a>

<img src="http://members.cox.net/geophi/T_time_series_through_2062.png">

Below are the comparisons to the graphics you posted in the other thread.

Temp, Summer 1840
<img src="http://members.cox.net/geophi/summer_1840_T.png">

Temp, Time Series for phases 1 and 2
<img src="http://members.cox.net/geophi/Phase1_and_2_T.png">

&gt; &gt; Hi
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; If geophi is monitoring these BOINC CPDN boards, it would be interesting
&gt; to
&gt; &gt; know how his AMD64 comparison of the 'unofficial' offline experiment on
&gt; &gt; WU248363 (2whn_000156785_1) with specific ref to Phase 2 has gone
&gt; compared to
&gt; &gt; the Amy/Stacey result discussed in the "same parameter different result"
&gt; &gt; thread.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; For what it's worth, at present both Amy and Stacey in Phase 3 are
&gt; calculating
&gt; &gt; a very rapid warming trend (already above 16C global mean) after 4 years
&gt; for
&gt; &gt; this particular model. Appears to be the fastest rate of Phase 3
&gt; temperature
&gt; &gt; rise I have yet observed in 10 CPDN runs.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Pete
&gt; &gt;
&gt; Hi Pete,
&gt;
&gt; Yes, I've been monitoring. My run is at 94% of completion. At year 4 of
&gt; phase 3, it was about 16.3 mean annual temperature. At year 12, it was about
&gt; 18.5C. It's still rising quite nicely (or badly if you will).

Hi geophi

Good result there, yours appears to have been more steady in Phase 2 than either of mine. Just for completeness, I will try reposting the same links here (using the hyperlinks this time - thanks for the tip on how to get it to work on these BOINC boards) so all can be seen in the same thread

Comparative Temperature Trace:

<img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Stacey_Ph_2_Temp_Trace(m).png">


Amy Temperature Map, Summer 1840:

<img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Amy_Data/WU248363/Amy_Summer_1840.png">


Stacey Temperature Map, Summer 1840:

<img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Stacey_Data/WU248363/Stacey_Summer_1840.png">


Amy - Stacey Differential Temperature Map, Summer 1840:

<img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Stacey_Summer_1840.png">

I will post a complete summary once the experiment has completed. Perhaps at that time, you could dump your entire

*.pe* directory for Phase 3 onto the tuxie site so I can download it and create a 3 way comparison for Phase 3.

Pete

&gt;
&gt; I will post a complete summary once the experiment has completed. Perhaps at
&gt; that time, you could dump your entire
&gt;
&gt; *.pe* directory for Phase 3 onto the tuxie site so I can download it and
&gt; create a 3 way comparison for Phase 3.
&gt;
&gt; Pete
&gt;
Sure, no problem. I like how you had the two temperature traces combined on the time series. That really shows the differences of the global mean temp.

Pete, uploaded all pe files from phase 3 in a zipped file to the Pete_B directory on tuxie. I'll look forward to the comparison when you finish.

It finished somewhere between 19 and 19.5 C so it was a hot one.

Cheers!

&gt; Pete, uploaded all pe files from phase 3 in a zipped file to the Pete_B
&gt; directory on tuxie. I'll look forward to the comparison when you finish.
&gt;
&gt; It finished somewhere between 19 and 19.5 C so it was a hot one.
&gt;
&gt; Cheers!

Hi there

Thanks geophi, downloaded the data now. I'm still waiting for completion of Amy &amp; Stacey's runs but I have just played around with a bit of your data to produce the Phase 3 Temperature /Time graph and a difference map of summer temperature between the start of Phase 3 (Summer 2051) and the end (Summer 2065) to show how much different regions have warmed over the phase.


Time/Temperature Graph
<img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Jayne_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Ph3_Temperature_Time.png">


Phase 3 Summer Temperature Change
<img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Jayne_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Jayne_Ph3_NHSummer_Warming.png">

As so often predicted, most of the warming (NH Summer) is at high latitude in the Antarctic (SH winter). Also, South America and part of the USA along with part of Africa, the Arab world and the North Atlantic to the North and North West of the UK show a large temp increase. The bulk of the Worlds ocean regions though have warmed by between 1 and 6C. I will follow with my own comparative data in due course including overlaying the Phase 3 Temperature/Time graph for all 3 runs on the same axes and an NH winter temperature change over the phase for the 3 runs.

Pete

How's it going Pete? Are they getting close to completion?

&gt; How's it going Pete? Are they getting close to completion?
&gt;

Hi

Yes, Amy completed sometime over the weekend. I have been away for a few days and she was left running unattended so I didn't see any later stages via the BOINC visualisations or the point of final results upload but the BOINC final completed result for the model is <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?field=Temperature&amp;resultid=466808&amp;phase=AT#graph">Temp here</a> and <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?field=Precipitation&amp;resultid=466808&amp;phase=AP#graph">Pptn here</a>. Final average Global Temperature just above 19C.

During my days away, Stacey was switched off but should complete today so I should be able to do the CPView comparison of Phase 3 results later today.

What I did see using the BOINC visualisations on Amy before I went away though was a great mass of white 'temperature overload' during the last but one NH summer over all the tropical and NH sub tropical land regions.

Pete