Article in Wednesday's grauniad: Hotter world may freeze Britain

<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1403798,00.html">Fifty-fifty chance that warm Gulf Stream may be halted</a>
also
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1404231,00.html"> Climate change 'will hit Africa hardest'</a>

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&gt; Article in Wednesday's grauniad: Hotter world may freeze Britain
&gt;
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1403798,00.html">Fifty-fifty chance that warm Gulf Stream may be halted</a>

Thanks for that. I heard it this morning on R4's Newspaper review but couldn't remember which paper they said it was in. I noted the 50/50 because I thought up until now, the THC slow/shutdown was supposed to be a low probability/high impact issue. 50/50 is hardly a low probability issue.

Incidentally, one of the the papers in the Exeter Conference referring to the THC shutdown (using the HadCM3 model as opposed to the HadSM3 model that was run last year in CPDN) is <a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/33_Richard_Wood.pdf">here</a>.

This shows that the region affected by the resultant temperature reduction is much smaller in area than that implied in either of the two live online (and a further one offline for my own study) CPDN THC models I completed, all of which showed the effect over a much wider area of the Northern Hemisphere. It will be interesting to see how different the area affected is if any similar sub experiment is built into the HadCM3 model runs to come later with CPDN.

Pete

I wonder what would be the "critical mass" to get politicians to take this threat seriously? Would it be something drastic as a THC shutdown, or extinction of polar bears, or ? While I don't think there's anywhere near enough evidence to tell everyone "The Day After Tomorrow will be a reality," it irks me that stuff like Iraq war &amp; tax cuts &amp; slashing social programs BECAUSE of the Iraq War &amp; tax cuts &amp; investing US Social Security pensions into the next Enron/stock market debacle is the "highest priority." ;-)

&gt; I wonder what would be the "critical mass" to get politicians to take this
&gt; threat seriously? Would it be something drastic as a THC shutdown, or
&gt; extinction of polar bears, or ? While I don't think there's anywhere near
&gt; enough evidence to tell everyone "The Day After Tomorrow will be a reality,"
&gt; it irks me that stuff like Iraq war &amp; tax cuts &amp; slashing social
&gt; programs BECAUSE of the Iraq War &amp; tax cuts &amp; investing US Social
&gt; Security pensions into the next Enron/stock market debacle is the "highest
&gt; priority." ;-)
&gt;
Unfortunately, I don't think polar bears would come very high up the scale of "critical mass" issues because it has no direct effect :-((

One problem is that Man seems to prefer the status quo so the "critical mass" event has to be something that comes right home with a bang before anything happens. The Iraq (or the rest of the so called "axis of evil" stuff) thing probably would never have happened but for the "critical mass" event of Sept 11 2001.

In terms of climate change therefore the "critical mass" event will only be when climate change has gone far enough to have a significant, continous and drastic effect on the West and if that happens, it will be much too late. I remember listening to a radio program on climate change (purely coincidentally) on Aug 10 2003 during a long drive up to Glasgow. The UK temp record of that day still had to be broken at the time it was on but the overall conclusion was that in general, the politicians of Europe and the US would only wake up to it when it had gone so far that crop failures, long and repeated droughts or other major weather changes came right onto our doorsteps. I suppose though, it is one of those things that can be changed by us all as individuals, whatever out leaders think. The more people that can be pulled 'on board' to recognise the potential long term seriousness of climate change and therefore sufficiently change their own behaviour in reducing their personal contributions has to be a step in the right direction.

In spite of the fact that, as a scientist, I personally still need to be convinced 100% of the CO2 link to the undisputable Global Warming (one of the reasons I am running CPDN - it is the only expt we can do, the alternative practical one is not acceptable in case the link is correct) I have taken multiple steps to reduce my own contribution. Such things as turning my heating thermostat down 3 degC on previous years and relying more on clothing for that extra bit of warmth when required. Changing my large car for something smaller and with only 1/2 the official CO2/km output. This is the first time I have given any consideration to the CO2 issue when selecting a 'new' car and not just gone for one of the biggest engines in the chosen car range. The more that can be persuaded to think that these little bits do matter then the better, although even then it is only part way there.

Pete

&gt; &gt; Article in Wednesday's grauniad: Hotter world may freeze Britain
&gt; &gt;
&gt; <a> href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1403798,00.html"&gt;Fifty-fifty
&gt; chance that warm Gulf Stream may be halted</a>
&gt;
&gt; Thanks for that. I heard it this morning on R4's Newspaper review but couldn't
&gt; remember which paper they said it was in. I noted the 50/50 because I thought
&gt; up until now, the THC slow/shutdown was supposed to be a low probability/high
&gt; impact issue. 50/50 is hardly a low probability issue.

I've tried to find a journal reference to Professor Schlesinger's comments, he seems highly respected and so probably should be listened to. He seems to be in the high climate sensitivies to CO2 cannot be ruled out camp (in his case 10% prob greater than 6.8C).

&gt; Incidentally, one of the the papers in the Exeter Conference referring to the
&gt; THC shutdown (using the HadCM3 model as opposed to the HadSM3 model that was
&gt; run last year in CPDN) is <a> href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/33_Richard_Wood.pdf"&gt;here</a>.
&gt;

Quote from the Richard Wood's paper:

"Comprehensive GCM climate projections suggest that the most likely response of the THC to global warming over the next century is a slowdown of around 0-50%. No models have shown a complete shutdown, or a net cooling over land areas."

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<a href="http://www.boincforum.info/boinc/">boinc forum</a> and <a href="http://www.uk4cp.co.uk/">United Kindom</a> team, my climate change <a href="http://www.livejournal.com/users/mike_atkinson/">blog</a>.

There are several different critical masses - of politicians, scientists, captains of industry, and voters. The latter, who do have some influence, will be convinced not just by arguments but also by the fluffy factor; I don't think the extinction of insects will garner many votes, but the demise of penguins and polar bears perhaps will.

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&gt; I've tried to find a journal reference to Professor Schlesinger's comments, he
&gt; seems highly respected and so probably should be listened to. He seems to be
&gt; in the high climate sensitivies to CO2 cannot be ruled out camp (in his case
&gt; 10% prob greater than 6.8C).

Did Professor Schlesinger actually refer to the 50% chance of THC shutdown issue? I have 'Googled' around both on Pofessor Michael Schlesinger and Thermohaline/gulf stream 50% shutdown and cannot find any reference to the 50% chance issue. I did however, find <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaAlerts/2004/2004121418002.html">this</a> which may be a brief summary of the type of information he gave at the Conference. Unfortunately, his Conference paper (Assessing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation) is not available for download but I wonder if it would be available if one e-mailed him direct at The University of Illinois?

&gt; &gt; Incidentally, one of the the papers in the Exeter Conference referring to
&gt; the
&gt; &gt; THC shutdown (using the HadCM3 model as opposed to the HadSM3 model that
&gt; was
&gt; &gt; run last year in CPDN) is <a> href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/33_Richard_Wood.pdf"&gt;here</a>.
&gt; &gt;
&gt;
&gt; Quote from the Richard Wood's paper:
&gt;
&gt; "Comprehensive GCM climate projections suggest that the most likely response
&gt; of the THC to global warming over the next century is a slowdown of around
&gt; 0-50%. No models have shown a complete shutdown, or a net cooling over land
&gt; areas."

What I did find during the searching was many references to the "up to 50% slowdown" issue though. As well as the Richard Wood Paper, <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/2005/CLIMATE_CHANGE_JOURNAL_150.pdf">this</a> and without any further information available at present, I wondered if the press reporters have got issues confused and turned a slowdown of up to 50% into a 50% chance of slow/shutdown.

Although not related to the THC as such, I also found <a href="http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu/publications/Causes_of_dT.pdf">this</a> relevant (to the overall issue of temperature change) and informative paper from Professor Schlesinger as one of the co authors.

Pete

&gt; There are several different critical masses - of politicians, scientists,
&gt; captains of industry, and voters. The latter, who do have some influence, will
&gt; be convinced not just by arguments but also by the fluffy factor; I don't
&gt; think the extinction of insects will garner many votes, but the demise of
&gt; penguins and polar bears perhaps will.
&gt;
I don't think penguins or polar bear extinction will give people conscience of the global warming and ecological problems.
Most people don't give a f%!£ about that, and they even don't know about it except when they see it on a TV program, between stupid TV shows and advertisements.
I know people that think that global warming is caused by hot air being issued by air conditionning devices or stuff like that. CO2 is unknown.
The science culture of Mr Joe Smith or politicians is close to zero and that's a big problem. All the societies are driven by crazy economic paradigms that don't take into account the ecological problems.
Just after the heat wave of 2003, that caused 15000 deaths in France, what politicians have done in France ?
Nothing, except pass a law to make people work one day more, and the money will be invested into building less inhuman old people homes: Great to fight global warming !!!
Well, I stop here because I know I'm a little extremist but as our dear french president says: "Notre maison brûle et nous regardons ailleurs" (Our home is burning and we're looking elsewhere)
Salut et vive le vélo !!

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Arnaud

&gt;The science culture of Mr Joe Smith or politicians is close to zero and that's a big problem.

Not only because of the ignorance it reflects but also because many people believe 'they' will find a 'scientific' solution to any problems which arise.

&gt;Well, I stop here because I know I'm a little extremist
LOL. I don't see why it hasn't stopped anybody else ;-)

Marj

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Hi,

For those of you who are interested, I've put the talk that Dave Stainforth did at the Stabilisation 2005 meeting in Exeter up on the website:

It's the last item on the Publications page:
<a href="http://www.climateprediction.net/science/publications.php">
http://www.climateprediction.net/science/publications.php</a>

Cheers,
Hannah

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Thanks Hannah.

What are 'transient 20th Century simulations' please, anybody?

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