Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : June Snow on the USA Gulf Coast
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Send message Joined: 10 Oct 04 Posts: 223 Credit: 4,664 RAC: 0 |
I am amazed that your 2 models are showing the same type of anomaly. Are you sure that the pics don't include ordinary rain? Your 2nd model (82009) shows snow in Texas in July, which is even more outlandish. __________________________________________________ |
Send message Joined: 5 Sep 04 Posts: 7629 Credit: 24,240,330 RAC: 0 |
> shows snow in Texas in July This is to get the message across to Gee Dub. (Insert smiley with tongue in cheek). Les |
Send message Joined: 30 Jan 05 Posts: 16 Credit: 65,203 RAC: 0 |
It's getting close to the end of Phase I for these models... the spring snow melt does seem to vary year to year, but at Year 15, it's not been tuned out, by any means..... We'll see what Phase II brings. http://www.geocities.com/bob_corey/Year15_Phase_1.gif I'm wondering just exactly what the Calibration Phase entails -- as I understand it, it's artifical heat fluxes into ocean cells to sustain a temperature set in the initial conditions (a single temperature for the whole ocean, or a seasonally varying temperature for each cell?) -- and then the temperature constraint is removed for Phase II, while the heat balance is constrained by the flux which is determined by Phase I..... Is this the jist of it, or am I way off base? |
Send message Joined: 16 Oct 04 Posts: 692 Credit: 277,679 RAC: 0 |
> It's getting close to the end of Phase I for these models... the spring snow > melt does seem to vary year to year, but at Year 15, it's not been tuned out, > by any means..... We'll see what Phase II brings. > > http://www.geocities.com/bob_corey/Year15_Phase_1.gif > > I'm wondering just exactly what the Calibration Phase entails -- as I > understand it, it's artifical heat fluxes into ocean cells to sustain a > temperature set in the initial conditions (a single temperature for the whole > ocean, or a seasonally varying temperature for each cell?) -- and then the > temperature constraint is removed for Phase II, while the heat balance is > constrained by the flux which is determined by Phase I..... > > Is this the jist of it, or am I way off base? > I think that is pretty much the jist of it. It seems to be a seasonally varying temperature for each cell. I don't know exactly how they do this. Are all the temperatures exactly predefined (sounds like a lot of data) or are temperatures allowed to vary to find their own seasonal pattern in some way? I have a feeling that I have heard indications that it is the latter but I can't quite remember what makes me think this. Visit BOINC WIKI for help And join BOINC Synergy for all the news in one place. |
Send message Joined: 16 Oct 04 Posts: 692 Credit: 277,679 RAC: 0 |
Bob, do you want to upload a copy of one of your pf files (say the .pf12c10 file if 1812 looked like it had lots of snow) from your dataout directory to Lorvija's ftp server ftp://cpdn.tuxie.org username cpdn password cpdn so we can look at how much snow is present in those cells? Visit BOINC WIKI for help And join BOINC Synergy for all the news in one place. |
Send message Joined: 16 Oct 04 Posts: 692 Credit: 277,679 RAC: 0 |
Heres one: <img src='http://cpdn.tuxie.org/crandles/snowjune.JPG'> I looked in csv from CPView for 1835 spring and there was 0 snow in all cells from 40N to 57.5S. So it looks like another display glitch. This is from a sulphur cycle model. I'll let you know about summer 1835 snow amount when it is available. |
Send message Joined: 16 Oct 04 Posts: 692 Credit: 277,679 RAC: 0 |
No snow in the summer quarter either. |
Send message Joined: 6 Mar 05 Posts: 2 Credit: 14,291 RAC: 0 |
Hi everyone I joined recently, think this is an interesting project but with 6% completed there are some strange things going on. 1. Like some others I see snow in USA, north Florida (I think) refusing to melt in May, June, even though the temperatures are at least 10 degrees. 2. Europe on the other hand hardly gets ANY snow at all, I think I only saw a bit of white over Spain once. Even western Russia gets no snow. 3. I must say that I occasionaly see some graphical quirks in other applications as well (not sure why, reinstalling the nvidia mx440 drivers didn't help) - so maybe it is my pc's mistake, but along the Greenwich meridian the temperature and pressure colors seem to be badly aligned. I can't figure out how to post an image so I will give you the url: http://www.byteway.com/temp/misaligned.gif |
Send message Joined: 10 Oct 04 Posts: 223 Credit: 4,664 RAC: 0 |
Your pic comes up, but what exactly do you think is wrong with it? __________________________________________________ |
Send message Joined: 6 Mar 05 Posts: 2 Credit: 14,291 RAC: 0 |
> Your pic comes up, but what exactly do you think is wrong with it? > The horizontal transition of temperature (colors) does not appear natural along the Greenwich meridian, maybe it is clearer on these two: http://www.byteway.com/temp/misaligned2.gif http://www.byteway.com/temp/misaligned3.gif |
Send message Joined: 10 Oct 04 Posts: 223 Credit: 4,664 RAC: 0 |
I have looked at 2.gif and 3.gif but from just this small part of the map it is very difficult to judge what is happening. When it seems strange next time, could you please post the picture of the whole world including the model data underneath, so that we see the phase, year, time of day and date (season)? If we don't know these four facts, it's difficult to see whether you are getting a normal or abnormal pattern. For example, it is normal for the sea to be warmer than the land, but only at night. __________________________________________________ |
Send message Joined: 7 Aug 04 Posts: 2187 Credit: 64,822,615 RAC: 5,275 |
Mo, You can see it <a href="http://members.cox.net/geophi/greenwich_seam.png">here</a> maybe better. Lines point to the discontinuities in the temperature contours along the Greenwich meridian. Other areas of globe on the contour view show no such discontinuities. At times it's more obvious than others, but it's always there. You can see it in the pressure field as well, particularly in the far South Atlantic near low pressure areas. Probably just an artifact of the way they do their contours in the visualization. |
Send message Joined: 17 Feb 05 Posts: 28 Credit: 63,813 RAC: 0 |
> Mo, > > You can see it <a> href="http://members.cox.net/geophi/greenwich_seam.png">here</a> maybe better. > Lines point to the discontinuities in the temperature contours along the > Greenwich meridian. Other areas of globe on the contour view show no such > discontinuities. At times it's more obvious than others, but it's always > there. You can see it in the pressure field as well, particularly in the far > South Atlantic near low pressure areas. Probably just an artifact of the way > they do their contours in the visualization. > Hmmm. yes. One of many strange anomalies I've noted looking at the SM3 model. And I find it strange they still haven't commented on my observation of backward moving clouds and low pressure systems in the extratropics too. I was trying to be generous by saying it was a display glitch, but it may well be a more fundamental problem with the model. I know if I was the one doing the coding I would have fixed such a problem within a week or less. Just who is responsible for the code and how many people are working on the project? -Eric B |
Send message Joined: 7 Aug 04 Posts: 2187 Credit: 64,822,615 RAC: 5,275 |
> I was trying to be generous by saying it was a display glitch, but it > may well be a more fundamental problem with the model. I know if I was > the one doing the coding I would have fixed such a problem within a week > or less. > > Just who is responsible for the code and how many people are working on > the project? > You may want to look at it as a fundamental problem with the model, but more than likely it is simply programming errors in the visualization. One person is doing 90% of the computer type work we see, trying to support the users (Tolu) and having a hard time at it given the huge workload, server problems, forced changes to the client because of upcoming/ongoing BOINC project changes, alpha projects for new CPDN experiments, etc. Most most of last year Carl Christenson was the primary person with Tolu helping in background. When Carl moved on, they still haven't replaced him and Tolu is trying to do it all. I think someone pointed out a bug in the visualization last fall and Tolu said something like "That's now one of 128 priorities on the list." Of course I'm paraphrasing and remembering inexactly, but it was close to that. In theory, the new computer help person may come on in May. But then again, they advertised for Carl's replacement back in the Oct/Nov timeframe and we still haven't seen him/her, so I wouldn't place too much hope in May. |
Send message Joined: 17 Aug 04 Posts: 753 Credit: 9,804,700 RAC: 0 |
I'd second Geophi's comments. The visualisation and the model are different programs, and I seem to remember a similar problem to the misaligned display 18 months ago when classic was launched. The E-W reversal may be related to the complaint that someone else had recently of the cursors being reversed when controlling the visualisation. It isn't that Tolu doesn't care about the visualisation. I suspect that he has spent very many hours on it since he started with CPDN, recalling Carl's remarks when he was around, but it really cannot be regarded as a priority when compared with the server problems, for example. |
Send message Joined: 5 Sep 04 Posts: 7629 Credit: 24,240,330 RAC: 0 |
Eric, One should expect a few models that don't live up to expectations. This is normal with any production run in industry. This project is being run for the benefit of research scientists, and we are, more or less, lab assistants. It is up to the scientists who use the data to exam each model and accept or reject it. As they say, or used to: Don't worry; Be happy. Peace, Man. (symbol of flowers) Les |
Send message Joined: 10 Oct 04 Posts: 223 Credit: 4,664 RAC: 0 |
Eric, did you see my post a few weeks ago in another thread about your east-to-west winds? I'm sure I was right about all that from the point of view of normal climate patterns, but from the temp displacement above, which I can now see clearly, it looks as if there may be several strange things going on here. I think I've picked up that phrase from the medics. When people have numerous symptoms and none of the tests give an unequivocal diagnosis, they say 'There's a lot going on here'. Sympathy, but no useful help. __________________________________________________ |
Send message Joined: 17 Feb 05 Posts: 28 Credit: 63,813 RAC: 0 |
> Eric, did you see my post a few weeks ago in another thread about your > east-to-west winds? I'm sure I was right about all that from the point of view > of normal climate patterns, but from the temp displacement above, which I can > now see clearly, it looks as if there may be several strange things going on > here. > I'm talking about the apparent movement of clouds in the extratropics. It's cleary WRONG. Clouds and lows (at least in my model) move from East to West, in both hemispheres. One normally doesn't see clouds streaming across Europe towards the US, nor does one normally see clouds flowing from East to West across the entire US. At the same time, the pressure output of the model appears to flow correctly in the extratropics - roughly West to East. It's a MET 101 league blunder, it's just the model runs slow enough for it not to be apparent. However, just looking at the curl of low pressure systems and cold fronts (in the cloud output) also reveals the problem. Can't believe I'm the first person to notice this... Whether or not it's just a visualization glitch, or perhaps a more serious problem ... dunno. -Eric |
Send message Joined: 20 Jan 05 Posts: 1 Credit: 69,550 RAC: 0 |
I'm running my second model, and in each of them, every year I have seen snow in places where it shouldn't be. Right now, for example, my model is showing snowcover from the chesapeake bay running down the east coast all the way to new orleans in mid may. There is also a patch of snowcover in Texas. Meanwhile, the daytime temperatures in some of these places appear to reach about 30 degrees. While this snow refuses to melt, arctic snow and ice cover (as well as antarctic snow and ice during the southern summer) vanishes rapidly even though temperatures don't break the freezingpoint. Another funny patch of snow I am looking at is one that is apparently floating in the middle of the indian ocean, where water temperatures are in the upper twenties or so. This is already a common enough feature in these models, judging by the posts, that it must represent a flaw somewhere along the line. I would be curious to find out what is causing this to happen. |
Send message Joined: 7 Aug 04 Posts: 2187 Credit: 64,822,615 RAC: 5,275 |
The snow cover looks to be some type of visualization display error as <b>crandles</b> pointed out previously in this thread with no snowfall accumulated in the model during an entire season, while the visualization shows persistent snow cover in places that shouldn't have it. So, there appears to be a number of things wrong with the visualization, particularly in the cloud/snow cover displays. |
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