Global heating and the dilemma of climate scientists

In private conversations, many climate scientists express far greater concern at the progression of global warming and its consequences than they do in public, writes Dr Andrew Glikson.

In an article titled When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job, a reference to a study by the University of Bristol cites, "Climate scientists have been so distracted and intimidated by the relentless campaign against them that they tend to avoid any statements that might get them labelled 'alarmists', retreating into a world of charts and data."

An analogy comes to mind of a medical team advising distressed relatives of the prognosis of a cancer patient, indicating a possible remission should the patient cease smoking. Some of the relatives plunge into depression but some criticise and attack the doctors, aided and abetted by the tobacco industry.

This is what climate change looks like.
Tasmania fires: First images of World Heritage Area devastation emerge, show signs of 'system collapse'

Man-made climate change significantly enhanced the risk of the severe winter storms that ravaged southern England two years ago, according to a study released Monday. Global warming amplified the likelihood of the "once-in-a-century" heavy flooding -- responsible for some 600 million euros ($650 million) in insured losses during the winter of 2013/2014 -- by more than 40 percent, researchers reported.

"We found that extreme rainfall, as seen in January 2014, is more likely to occur in a changing climate," said Nathalie Shaller, lead author and a scientist at Oxford University.
Climate change boosted 'once-a-century' floods

I assume this is us.

Yes, that's us.

Also the post in this section by Crandles, just below the stickies: Carbon emissions boosted 2014 January storm risk 'by 43%'

And just posted on the BOINC/dev forum, News section: CPDN paper in Nature Climate Change

Tasmanian bushfires: Damage to Wilderness World Heritage Area to be assessed by specialists

Two teams of scientists and bushfire experts are due to start investigating the extent of damage fires have wrought on Tasmania's Wilderness World Heritage Area (WWHA) on Wednesday.

The specialist crews will first focus on the fire grounds near Cradle Mountain and Lake Mackenzie in the Central Plateau.

In those regions fire has scorched unique alpine flora that do not regenerate.

Do we know who at Bristol carried out this study as it is not referenced at all in the articles - just quoted!

OK, I'm not sure about this, but the following all seem to fit:

On the cpdn front page, left hand side: Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts, which is this page

2nd paragraph after the picture, it says: ... and the Thames Valley in the south east.

***************

Climate change boosted 'once-a-century' floods: study
... said Nathalie Shaller, lead author and a scientist at Oxford University.

...The final step, she said, was calculating flood potential in the Thames River Basin, right down to "the number of properties at risk," she said.

***************

So it looks like it was/is the MaRIUS project.

In this page: MaRIUS, there are 5 people listed as being at the university of Bristol.

***************

However, half the people listed at the top of the research paper are or have been involved in cpdn over the years.

I guess from the people involved in this that Atmospheric Chemistry, the compounds involved and the modelling of the reactions have nothing to do with climate change. Hmmm. (Ex Bristol Uni Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group).

CSIRO boss�s failed logic over climate science could waste billions in taxes

Speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday, CSIRO chief executive Larry Marshall offered the following justification for his decision to cut 110 jobs from the agency�s climate science staff:

We have spent probably a decade trying to answer the question �is the climate changing?� � After [December�s] Paris [climate summit] that question has been answered. The next question now is what do we do about it? The people that were so brilliant at measuring and modelling [climate change], they might not be the right people to figure out how to adapt to it.

That is among the most ill-informed statements I have ever heard from a senior executive. It will take a little to unpack it and to show that the apparent decision to dramatically downscale CSIRO�s ocean and atmospheric research will cost taxpayers and governments billions of dollars in flawed investments unless, by sheer blind luck, the right guesses are made.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35516211

Vehicles sink as frozen US 'car park' unexpectedly melts
7 February 2016 Last updated at 14:19 GMT

A frozen lake being used as a car park at the annual Winter Fest event in Wisconsin, US, unexpectedly melted leaving vehicles submerged in the water.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35516211

Vehicles sink as frozen US 'car park' unexpectedly melts
7 February 2016 Last updated at 14:19 GMT

A frozen lake being used as a car park at the annual Winter Fest event in Wisconsin, US, unexpectedly melted leaving vehicles submerged in the water.

This probably has little to do with global warming and a lot to do with this crazy El Nino that is going on. In New York, USA we have been oscillating between periods of 50 F weather with a blizzard in between that dumped 30 inches of snow.

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This probably has little to do with global warming and a lot to do with this crazy El Nino that is going on.

I suspect that at some point we will find that the odds on crazy El Ninos is increased by climate change.

"Global warming" is a global average.
In the short term, some individual areas will get warmer, some will get cooler. Some will get wetter, some will get drier.

Which is why "Climate Change" is often a better term when talking about "small" areas of the planet.

I think El Nino and La Nina are just extreme examples of this.

In the Wiki article on El Nino, just above the Contents list, it says this:

Measurements and simulations have found that climate change has created a tendency toward more extreme El Ni�os in recent years.

And I did wonder when I first heard that story, how much it had to do with the still warm-to-hot engines.

PS: You beat me to it Dave. :)

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35566151

US scientists have modelled how a 1930s-like "dustbowl" drought might impact American agriculture today, and found it to be just as damaging. But the research shows the effects to be very sensitive to temperature, meaning the potential losses would be far worse later this century if Earth's climate heats up as expected.

Turtles face climate change threat as warming beaches turn eggs female

Researchers investigating the impact of warming temperatures on sea turtles are travelling to some of the most remote beaches in Australia to work out which populations are at risk of being feminised into extinction.

In a phenomenon being seen worldwide, warming temperatures are resulting in an increasing number of turtles eggs hatching female.

The race is now on to work out which rookeries are most at risk in Australia, with a University of Western Australia (UWA) team focused on turtle breeding areas on the Kimberley coast.

"This is very fundamental research, and will give us insights fifty years ahead about whether sex ratios will change, where distributions might shift to, and what impact climate change is going to have," team leader Nicki Mitchell said.

Tassie fires linked to human-induced climate change, study finds

Bushfires in Tasmania are happening more frequently now than in the past 1,000 years, and human impacts on climate are likely to blame, researchers say.
Key points:

Bushfires in Tasmania are more frequent now than in the past 1,000 years
This is linked to southward migration of westerly winds
This southward movement has been linked ozone depletion

Scientists said the increase in bushfires on the island was due to the shift of westerly winds towards Antarctica, a trend that has previously been linked to depletion of the ozone layer.

"My conviction is that the current trend is evidence of anthropogenic forces," said Dr Michael-Shawn Fletcher of the University of Melbourne, who studies long-term interactions between humans, climate and vegetation.



A belt of westerly winds north of Antarctica brings rain to southern parts of Australia including Tasmania. The movement of these winds north and south is known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

During a negative SAM, westerlies move north, but during a positive SAM the winds move south and drier conditions prevail on land.

Previous research has linked a shift towards a positive SAM and the southward shift of westerlies, with depletion of the ozone layer, which affects the upper atmosphere.

World's oceans absorbed as much heat in last 18 years as in previous 130, US study finds

The oceans have soaked up as much heat from global warming over the last two decades as during the preceding 130 years, a study by US scientists has found.
Key points:

Oceans soak up as much heat in last 18 years as in previous 130, scientists say.
A third of recent build up occurred at depths of 700 metres or greater.
Oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat generated by man-made greenhouse gases.

While this accelerated absorption has helped keep human habitats cooler, in the long run it could be a ticking time bomb that disrupts weather and climate globally, the scientists warned.

"We estimate that half of the total global ocean heat uptake since 1865 has accumulated since 1997," a team of scientists led by Peter Gleckler of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California reported.

A third of that recent build up, they found, occurred at depths of 700 metres or greater, beyond the reach of sunlight.

This may explain a pause or "hiatus" in warming observed at the sea surface since the end of the 20th century, the study said.
Some had interpreted this as a slowdown in warming overall.

Surface waters are thought to have previously absorbed the bulk of heat taken up by the ocean.

Why the ratio is changing is not fully understood.

http://climatecrocks.com/2016/03/22/all-star-science-panel-drops-bombshell-climate-paper/

If on my facebook feed counts as in the news ;)

Climate report: 2015 'shattered' temperature records around the world

Climate change could put eucalypts at risk of death from air bubbles