First of all, hello! My name is Hannah Rowlands and I've just started as the new (part-time) climateprediction.net Communications Officer.

So, we're about to launch a new weather@home project looking at the link between the recent UK winter flooding and climate change.

You can read about the project on the website.

What's really exciting about this project is that it's being covered by the Guardian, and we're planning to post a real-time plot of results, day by day, as they come in.

I'll post a link to the Guardian article tomorrow.

In the meantime, get ready for some new model runs coming online tomorrow.

Welcome to the forums, Hannah!

It looks like the new models are being issued already. My machine has picked up four.

Thanks for the welcome!

Yes, I think they've started sending them out today, ahead of press coverage tomorrow, just in case there were any problems with them...

Cheers,
Hannah

Finally some new models!! I have received only one, presumably returned, model in the last 4 months and now I have just noticed 9 downloaded in the last 3 days, 5 of which are these new ones.

No flooding here on the English Welsh border and only one bad gale which destroyed our poly-tunnel skin but it was nearly due for replacement anyway. What I have found unusual is that we have had only three frosty nights all winter and two of those were last night and tonight. We still have two roses flowering from last year; that is unprecedented in the 40 years we have been here.

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we have had only three frosty nights all winter

I think last night was only our third and all three have been very mild frosts. My bees certainly think the weather is strange for the time of year as they were collecting pollen in January!

Welcome to the forums. :)

edit - seems the homepage now has been fixed.

... edit - seems the homepage now has been fixed.

Gone again. I was checking the links from the on-line Graun article earlier and all the top-level CPDN pages worked fine. However, the weather-at-home pages had changed since yesterday, so perhaps whatever content management system CPDN uses disables the Web site pages when it's updating. In which case it could be a little chattier than displaying a page with only the word "error" on it.

We're pleased to see loads of models getting gobbled up by people's computers, new participants and long-timers alike.

Thanks again to everyone for taking part and letting us run our models on your computers!

Cheers,
Hannah
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Hannah Rowlands
CPDN Communications Officer
Website: www.climateprediction.net
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CPDN_BOINC

My first two models have completed and it will be interesting to see how the live update plot develops.

The explanation of the plot leaves me a little confused, however. Each dot on the plot represents a result from a user, with the Y-value being the accumulated rain over the simulation period and the X-value being the return probability. But a single model, unless it is itself an ensemble (e.g. a 'Monte Carlo' model), cannot determine a probability: in Monte Carlo terms each model is a 'trial' and you can't get a probability from one trial.

There's clearly something I'm missing in the explanation.

[Edit: What I'm missing is that the individual models are ranked within the ensemble and allocated the 1/n Monte Carlo probability. I had wrongly assumed the return probability was calculated by some other means.]

My first two models have completed

It is clearly time for me to think about upgrading!

What I have found unusual is that we have had only three frosty nights all winter and two of those were last night and tonight. We still have two roses flowering from last year; that is unprecedented in the 40 years we have been here.

Lucky you. Here in the United States we have been having the Winter from hell. One very cold outbreak after another. Some places have seen temp. as low as -40F (or C, it�s the same on both scales).

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... Lucky you. Here in the United States we have been having the Winter from hell. One very cold outbreak after another. Some places have seen temp. as low as -40F (or C, it�s the same on both scales).

Sure it's been warm, but it has also flooded really badly here this winter. The underlying cause is the same here and there - a stuck jet stream.

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I'm a volunteer and my views are my own.
News and Announcements and FAQ

On the preferences page, what type do these new weather@home models belong to? I have HadCM and HadAM3 selected, iirc.

Edit: NM. I think I found it: HadAMP3_EU

I have just been listing the the BBC Radio 4 'Inside Science' program. On this was a short mention of this new project.

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Hannah, I have recently joined, my first model is 85% through. Can you tell me if there is anyone else in the Channel Islands (Jersey in particular) taking part? I note that the Isle of Man is mentioned in the list of countries taking part (7 people) but no mention of the Channel Islands. It would be nice if you could put me/us on the list, even though we are a part of the British Isles (but not the United Kingdom).

There is a lot to absorb as a beginner, so it would be nice to work through it with someone in real life.

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Hi Christine,

not sure if it lets you contact them but there is a link in the menu on the left, fourth up from the bottom to user map, however having just looked certainly with my screen resolution I can not be sure what the answer is.

You could try using the search function on participant profiles. The problem is that messaging someone might not get them as many participants only look at the message boards if they have a problem and some don't even do that!

You can always leave a message in the Caf� section of the message board asking for anyone who might fit your criteria.

Hope that helps a bit.

Dave

I believe that you have good intentions, but, some peopled might not want their locations revealed, even to a general area like the Channel Islands, or to receive private message from others running the project. They might feels that they were being �stalked�.

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